For decades, presidential elections in the U.S. were governed by a simple rule: “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.” From 1964 to 2016, the Buckeye State voted for the presidential winner on every single occasion. This run came to an end in 2020, when Ohio backed President Donald Trump by a margin of eight percentage points, even as the rest of the country moved in the opposite direction. Because Trump won the state by an even larger margin—11.3 percentage points—in 2024, many concluded that it had shifted from purple to solidly red, no longer predictive of the national mood.
November’s upcoming gubernatorial race, however, threatens to upend this consensus. The race pits Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the presumptive Republican nominee, against Democrat Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health. The two appear to be neck-and-neck: A December 11 poll by Emerson College found that 46 percent of voters support Acton for governor, while 45 percent back Ramaswamy. 9 percent remain undecided.
The outcome of this race will determine if Ohio remains a national bellwether. And it will be a sign as to what Americans are prioritizing in politics: the tangible concerns of daily life, such as affordability, or the issues of the culture war.
The race between Ramaswamy and Acton wasn’t always so close. On August 22, when Emerson shared the results of its first poll, the biotech billionaire led Acton by 10 percentage points among all voters (49 percent to 39 percent).
So, what changed between August and December? The crosstabs of both Emerson polls, when read together, are revealing and worth highlighting in full.
The data show that, over the last few months, Ramaswamy has increased his support among voters over 60, voters with a postgraduate degree or higher, and men, albeit by less than one percentage point (+0.7). Acton, by contrast, has gained ground with every demographic group except voters over 70 and men.
Emerson’s December 11 poll is also indicative of which demographic groups make up each candidate’s electoral coalition, at least at this point in time. Ramaswamy leads Acton among whites, voters over 50, voters without a college degree, and men. Meanwhile, Acton draws considerable support from racial minorities, young voters, voters who are college-educated, and women.
What does all this mean? First, fringe claims on social media describing Ramaswamy as the Ohio Republican Party’s “DEI candidate” or a left-winger in disguise find little support in actual polling data. His coalition is firmly rooted in elements of the Republican base. What’s more, 84 percent of Ohioans who voted for President Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, as well as 80.7 percent of registered Republicans, told Emerson that, if the 2026 election for Ohio Governor were held today, they would back Ramaswamy, not Acton. Social media, as Ramaswamy recently acknowledged in an essay for the Wall Street Journal, is not real life.
Such claims are also rebutted by Ramaswamy’s endorsements. In October, President Trump formally endorsed Ramaswamy, referring to him as “young, strong, smart, and deeply in love with the United States.” Five months prior—an entire year in advance of the Republican gubernatorial primary—the state GOP chose to back him over others courting the party’s nomination, such as Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost. This was reportedly done at the urging of Donald Trump Jr., and is reminiscent of how he convinced his father, during the summer of 2024, to select JD Vance as a running mate.
Emerson’s two surveys show that Acton, despite her flaws, is gaining serious ground in this race. Another important takeaway, though, is that as an electoral candidate, she is flawed.
Consider, for example, that only 35 percent of Ohio voters hold a favorable view of Acton, compared to 48 percent who are unfavorable. Much of this distaste likely stems from her tenure as the director of the Ohio Health Department, which concluded in June 2020. During the onset of the pandemic, Acton advocated for what many critics described as a draconian response, including advising Governor Mike DeWine to close schools and limit public gatherings to fewer than 100 people; DeWine was the first U.S. governor to impose such severe restrictions.
Over the last several months, Ramaswamy and the Ohio Republican Party have tried to cement this image of Acton in the minds of voters, labeling her “Dr. Lockdown.” Their aim, it seems, is to make Acton’s name synonymous with the notion of government overreach and convince Ohioans that, as governor, she would prioritize state control over individual liberty and economic opportunity.
Why, then, is the former state health director rising in the polls, including a growing lead (now 5.1 percentage points) among independent voters?
One reason might be that the top concern for Ohio voters, according to Emerson, is the economy. 44 percent of respondents told the pollster that the most important issue facing the state today is “the economy,” which includes jobs, inflation, and taxes. “Threats to democracy,” at 12.9 percent, came in at a distant second.
That Ohioans are dissatisfied with the current economy isn’t great news for Republicans statewide. And it’s reflective of the political mood nationally, as Americans are most worried about their checkbooks.
Indeed, a Morning Consult poll released earlier this week found that more Americans disapprove than approve of President Trump’s handling of the economy. In a similar vein, more Ohioans told Emerson that they disapprove than approve of the job that both Trump (48.0 percent to 46.2 percent) and Governor DeWine (45.4 percent to 26.2 percent) are doing.
Acton may also be gaining ground because she’s positioned herself as a moderate—though she is not one—who cares more about the well-being of her state than what’s going on at the national level—an approach that voters tend to appreciate in local races. This strategy mirrors the successful gubernatorial campaigns of Democrats Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mickie Sherrill in New Jersey. Both proved that, in the current electoral climate, prioritizing “kitchen table” issues over culture war concerns can go a long way, especially with independents.
Ramaswamy knows this, too. In just a few short months, he’s managed to visit all 88 counties in Ohio and spoken extensively about making it “the most affordable state in America where families get ahead, not fall behind.” His challenge lies in convincing an increasingly frustrated group of voters that the most effective way to do so is through cutting taxes, red tape, and government largesse, among other things. And this might place him at odds, at least in some instances, with the Trump administration and national party.
For national politics, the implication is clear: whichever party focuses on the fundamentals of effective governance as a way to address everyday concerns—or at least convinces the electorate it has done so—will be the one to prevail in 2026 and beyond. Even in our polarized age, much of politics is still local.
There’s more than 10 months until the Ohio governor’s race, which is several lifetimes in politics. That said, if Ramaswamy and Acton continue to be neck-and-neck, then the Buckeye State’s days as a competitive battleground may not be over just yet.
A minor note: the Libertarian Party of Ohio is going to have a candidate on the ballot, who may pull a few percent (their Senate candidate in 2024 got 3%). Historically those votes come from Republicans, but with the coalition shifts since 2016 who knows.