For murder, NYC really mimic's the US decline. The rest of the index crimes the trend in NYC (after taking about the usual seasonal ups/downs) is basically flat (whereas many of these crimes are overall going down in the US).
David Hackett Fischer has written a book, The Great Wave, where he follows 700 years of English records which show that the inflation rate and the murder rate are highly correlated. Correlation is not causation but it is intriguing.
“Simply put, by getting the relatively small number of offenders that pose the highest risk of serious violence off the street and deterring those in their close networks of criminal associates,…”
I think the quoted statement is surely true.
But I think you are giving sanctuary city NYC and Tisch too much credit, and Donald Trump insufficient credit.
Because stopping the flow of illegal immigration and deporting some of the worst criminals is surely a huge chunk of this reduction of the murder rate.
Young gangbangers and cartel members, many of whom are imported from Mexico, are a huge fraction of murderers, and the source of these has been radically reduced.
I suspect this is at least 30%-50% of the explanation. It might be a higher percentage. Of course, none of us can know for sure.
But your piece is materially weaker for not highlighting this very salient point.
If folks want to see NYC relative to other US cities, I have an app here, https://apwheele.github.io/CrimeDecomp/app/?crime=assault&city=NY0303000#city for index crimes (so no shootings specifically).
For murder, NYC really mimic's the US decline. The rest of the index crimes the trend in NYC (after taking about the usual seasonal ups/downs) is basically flat (whereas many of these crimes are overall going down in the US).
David Hackett Fischer has written a book, The Great Wave, where he follows 700 years of English records which show that the inflation rate and the murder rate are highly correlated. Correlation is not causation but it is intriguing.
If the correlation is obvious why has the City Council, the DA, the Mayor (present and past) and the NYPD pushed for more officers?
“Simply put, by getting the relatively small number of offenders that pose the highest risk of serious violence off the street and deterring those in their close networks of criminal associates,…”
I think the quoted statement is surely true.
But I think you are giving sanctuary city NYC and Tisch too much credit, and Donald Trump insufficient credit.
Because stopping the flow of illegal immigration and deporting some of the worst criminals is surely a huge chunk of this reduction of the murder rate.
Young gangbangers and cartel members, many of whom are imported from Mexico, are a huge fraction of murderers, and the source of these has been radically reduced.
I suspect this is at least 30%-50% of the explanation. It might be a higher percentage. Of course, none of us can know for sure.
But your piece is materially weaker for not highlighting this very salient point.