Very interesting read. If the trend continues unabated, each new generation not replacing itself, the rate of population collapse should not be hard to plot, at least in the aggregate. I can’t help but wonder if societal issues like energy, environmental concerns and housing will ultimately solve themselves as the unaffordable today becomes abandoned in a world that is emptying itself out.
Certain issues will get better as you said, for example housing for sure, we will have at the same time a transfer of wealth from boomers to millennials. I would be less worried about most issues if we didn't have a pay as you go social security system in the Western World that seems like no one wants to seriously reform towards privatization to invest in your own future.
But aside of Social Security I think it will be a conflict between how much are you an addition utilitarians so more people better or a mean utilitiarian where you think more in terms of the average happiness. I think everyone sits in a continuum but of course the more mean utilitarian you are the better you will see this.
This is good for reducing strain on ecosystems and resources without too much malgenic selection. Low TFR in rich countries and higher in middle-income ones would have meant a large drop in global IQs for no population benefit. Now if we could just get Africa's fertility down...
The oldest Boomers in the US are now 80. Many will not live to 90, and the next 10 to 20 years will be the start of the transition to a Boomer-free future. As a just-on-the- GenX/Boomer line myself, I’m interested to see how this will take shape and what sort of living situation I’ll end up in should I make it to extreme old age.
I am curious what the birth rates are in countries without an old age social safety net versus those that do.
There is no doubt that the cause of the TFR collapse is multifactorial,but the switch from children as producer goods - and retirement plan - to children as consumer goods is clearly a huge one.
You allude to this with prisons and healthcare, but prisons are not new and modern healthcare would seem to increase the need for a retirement plan rather than reduce one, unless you are referring to socialized medicine.
It is difficult to find places without Social Security now, but in general we can see that there are many countries where pensions were introduced long time ago and still they had no effect on fertility rate.
All countries in Western Europe are a good example. Italy created a universal pension system around 1920 and still the fertility rate in 1950 was 2.39 and 2.36 in 1972. It seems like fertility rate went down right after the 1968 protests, or modernity.
The lag between pension introduction and fertility fall are different for each country, but all of them has a fertility fall after 68 or let's say modernity. That is what the JFV model fitting said in general.
See India, Universal Pension Introduction around 2009 but fertility rate started falling from 68 on:
Still, falling is consistent with richer and introduction of widespread birth control.
Fertility has indeed been falling with modernity and richer and more women in the workforce, there is of course no question. The interesting question is which are the biggest factors.
My moderately strong claim is that old age pensions and health benefits are necessary components of falling through replacement.
Very interesting read. If the trend continues unabated, each new generation not replacing itself, the rate of population collapse should not be hard to plot, at least in the aggregate. I can’t help but wonder if societal issues like energy, environmental concerns and housing will ultimately solve themselves as the unaffordable today becomes abandoned in a world that is emptying itself out.
Certain issues will get better as you said, for example housing for sure, we will have at the same time a transfer of wealth from boomers to millennials. I would be less worried about most issues if we didn't have a pay as you go social security system in the Western World that seems like no one wants to seriously reform towards privatization to invest in your own future.
But aside of Social Security I think it will be a conflict between how much are you an addition utilitarians so more people better or a mean utilitiarian where you think more in terms of the average happiness. I think everyone sits in a continuum but of course the more mean utilitarian you are the better you will see this.
This is good for reducing strain on ecosystems and resources without too much malgenic selection. Low TFR in rich countries and higher in middle-income ones would have meant a large drop in global IQs for no population benefit. Now if we could just get Africa's fertility down...
The oldest Boomers in the US are now 80. Many will not live to 90, and the next 10 to 20 years will be the start of the transition to a Boomer-free future. As a just-on-the- GenX/Boomer line myself, I’m interested to see how this will take shape and what sort of living situation I’ll end up in should I make it to extreme old age.
I am curious what the birth rates are in countries without an old age social safety net versus those that do.
There is no doubt that the cause of the TFR collapse is multifactorial,but the switch from children as producer goods - and retirement plan - to children as consumer goods is clearly a huge one.
You allude to this with prisons and healthcare, but prisons are not new and modern healthcare would seem to increase the need for a retirement plan rather than reduce one, unless you are referring to socialized medicine.
It is difficult to find places without Social Security now, but in general we can see that there are many countries where pensions were introduced long time ago and still they had no effect on fertility rate.
All countries in Western Europe are a good example. Italy created a universal pension system around 1920 and still the fertility rate in 1950 was 2.39 and 2.36 in 1972. It seems like fertility rate went down right after the 1968 protests, or modernity.
Ten years later in 1982 it fell to 1.6.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ita/italy/fertility-rate
The fact that there is a big delay in falling fertility vs old age benefits should not be particularly surprising.
Western Europe is exactly my strongest argument for my claim.
I also did not claim it was the only factor, just that it’s a major one.
Clearly widespread birth control availability (abortion being one of those methods) is a sine qua non.
The lag between pension introduction and fertility fall are different for each country, but all of them has a fertility fall after 68 or let's say modernity. That is what the JFV model fitting said in general.
See India, Universal Pension Introduction around 2009 but fertility rate started falling from 68 on:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Pension_Scheme
https://pfrda.org.in/about-us/history
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ind/india/fertility-rate
5.72 in 1968
3.35 in 2000
2.72 in 2009
2.11 in 2025
Thx.
Still, falling is consistent with richer and introduction of widespread birth control.
Fertility has indeed been falling with modernity and richer and more women in the workforce, there is of course no question. The interesting question is which are the biggest factors.
My moderately strong claim is that old age pensions and health benefits are necessary components of falling through replacement.